The 8-Ball: Day Three
by Sean Carolan

[ALTROK's contributors have all turned to the Magic 8-Ball for a look at next year. Today, Sean Carolan squints at the orb.]


Will the music industry continue to be run by people who don't care about music?

Magic 8-Ball: Most Likely

Sean: And that's not limited to the music industry. As long as companies are owned by stockholders, who really only have one unifying desire - that the value of their stock increase - most industries will make decisions based on what makes the most money in the short term, not what's best for the business in the long term.


In 2002, will Sean pull a complete reversal on the last day of the year and agree with a small but growing population that something as bizarre as a bootleg remix featuring Christina Aguilera's "Genie In A Bottle" set to the music of The Strokes' "Hard To Explain" is, in fact, the song of the year for 2001?

Magic 8-Ball: Reply Hazy Try Again

Sean: Thank God.


Will the FBI's definition of "terrorist activity" be expanded to include downloading music for free?

Magic 8-Ball: Better Not Tell You Now

Sean: ...'cause then I'd have to kill you. (Law enforcement agencies: please note that this is a joke. A joke! No, really!)


Will the business of making and listening to continue to expand in ways the music industry will completely fail to predict, and will they continue to spend more money fighting it than they would have made accomodating it?

Magic 8-Ball: As I See It Yes

Sean: When you're a buggy whip manufacturer, you tend to ignore trends that aren't good for the buggy whip industry. Remember, these horseless carriages are just a passing fad.


Will new artists be more likely to go it on their own rather than hook up with a record label?

Magic 8-Ball: Outlook Good

Sean: If there's an industry bigger than music, it's consumer electronics, and they're more than happy to sell you equipment that makes you sound good for less, and sell you more equipment that lets you distribute your music on the cheap. God bless 'em.


Will bands I'd feared dissolved stay dissolved?

Magic 8-Ball: Don't Count On It

Sean: 2001 witnessed the magical resurrection of New Order and the Human League, and the continued efficacy of XTC. Will ABC and Heaven 17's royalty checks finally dwindle low enough to get them off their butts and release another classsic?


Will file trading get bigger every time an attempt is made to kill it?

Magic 8-Ball: Yes

Se: Everytime a service with a simple interface gets cut down, a whole new audience gets comfortable with more complicated interfaces. They could have controlled a service whose interface was as simple and non-technical as AOL's, but noooo...


What about electronica/trance/etc.?

Magic 8-Ball: Ask Again Later

Sean: ...and prepare for the same answer the next time you ask.


If I buy a new release of a classic cartoon like, oh, say, "Snow White And The Seven Dwarfs", need I fear for the harshing of my mellow by the inexcusable appearance of someone like Barbra Streisand singing something like "Someday My Prince Will Come"?

Magic 8-Ball: It Is Certain

Sean: Barbra, your prince has come a few times over. Lay off the hopes and dreams, willya?


The music industry got huge by convincing people who don't care about music to buy more than they ever needed. Will this trend continue?

Magic 8-Ball: Very Doubtful

Sean: Unless they find a new paradigm, the audience for "popular music" will make an exit for the fringes (or just make an exit, period, 'cause they're getting too old for this crap.)


Will 2002 suck nearly as much as 2001 did?

Magic 8-Ball: My Sources Say No

Sean: That sound you hear is the sound of me desperately trying to find a piece of wood to knock on.

©2001 Sean Carolan

All material ©2001-2006 Sean Carolan, except as noted.

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